How realistic is the $40m run-rate in net income? 2021 was $38m but then in 2022 it dropped to $10m. Last year it was $22m. Assuming a 10x on $20-$30m we don't get to current price.
Obviously the cash position makes this pretty cheap regardless, but I wonder about the sustainability of a $40m+ earnings long-term. This also impacts the buyout math for IMAX.
It should be realistic. Box office is running higher than 2021, marginally, but the key is how much share imax is capturing - up closer to 6% now vs 3.3% in 2021. That will be sustainable. In fact, the capture rate should go up over time and consumers are basically demanding viewings in imax in many cases (see F1, which is taking more than 1/3 of receipts in China right now). Moreover, 1) the take is higher with filmed for imax, which is becoming common (very minimal in 2021), 2) the mix is shifting towards Chinese films - which are again higher take and 3) unit count is exploding.
Thanks! One more question: what makes you confident they will buy back a significant amount of stock anytime soon? I mean they paused the dividend and haven't done any meaningful buybacks. Why would that change now? It feels a bit tricky with IMAX being the controlling shareholder.
I can see see the incentive for IMAX to offer a ~$12 buyout or something though, which would be a nice return if it happens anytime soon.
Great write up. Agree on all points. Only thing I worry about is that IMAX lets time do it's job & only restarts the buyback after a period of no news & the stock drifts lower.
Great write-up, thank you Raging Bull
Great read, thanks!
Very nice write up!
Thanks for the write-up!
How realistic is the $40m run-rate in net income? 2021 was $38m but then in 2022 it dropped to $10m. Last year it was $22m. Assuming a 10x on $20-$30m we don't get to current price.
Obviously the cash position makes this pretty cheap regardless, but I wonder about the sustainability of a $40m+ earnings long-term. This also impacts the buyout math for IMAX.
It should be realistic. Box office is running higher than 2021, marginally, but the key is how much share imax is capturing - up closer to 6% now vs 3.3% in 2021. That will be sustainable. In fact, the capture rate should go up over time and consumers are basically demanding viewings in imax in many cases (see F1, which is taking more than 1/3 of receipts in China right now). Moreover, 1) the take is higher with filmed for imax, which is becoming common (very minimal in 2021), 2) the mix is shifting towards Chinese films - which are again higher take and 3) unit count is exploding.
Thanks! One more question: what makes you confident they will buy back a significant amount of stock anytime soon? I mean they paused the dividend and haven't done any meaningful buybacks. Why would that change now? It feels a bit tricky with IMAX being the controlling shareholder.
I can see see the incentive for IMAX to offer a ~$12 buyout or something though, which would be a nice return if it happens anytime soon.
Great write up. Agree on all points. Only thing I worry about is that IMAX lets time do it's job & only restarts the buyback after a period of no news & the stock drifts lower.
Yeah could very well happen in the short term, but eventually they will run out of weak hands, and we know where this ends up going.